The intensity and duration of Lake heat waves will increase by the end of the 21st century, according to a study of climate science models published recently by the British journal Nature. Under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, the average duration of Lake heat wave may increase by about 3 months, and some lakes may enter the permanent heat wave state, accompanied by the ecosystem resilience may approach the limit.

The increasing frequency of heat waves on land and ocean surfaces is thought to be related to global warming. However, there is still a gap in the understanding of Lake heat wave and how it is affected by global warming. Lake ecosystems are very sensitive to temperature changes, and the response of lakes to global warming will also affect the organisms that depend on these environments.

In view of this, esteen walvey and colleagues from the climate Office of the European Space Agency (ESA) simulated the effects of heat waves on 702 lakes from 1901 to 2099. They found that under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), by the end of the 21st century, the average warming of Lake heat wave will increase from about 3.7 ℃ to about 5.4 ℃, and the average duration will extend from about one week to more than three months. Under the most conservative emission scenario (RCP 2.6), the average warming and duration were about 4.0 ℃ and 1 month, respectively.

The team's predictions included lakes as deep as 60 meters, and they found that deeper lakes had longer but weaker heat waves.

The research team believes that as lakes gradually warm in the 21st century, heat waves will cover all seasons, and some lakes will enter a permanent state of heat waves. Walvey concluded that the heat wave event increased or threatened the biodiversity of the lake, leading to the ecosystem's resilience approaching the limit.

In 2019, another report published by nature climate change also shows that global warming is increasing the average temperature of the sea system. The study found that heat waves are becoming more frequent and lasting, and the number of heat waves in the global ocean system has tripled in the past few years. In the long run, compared with 1925-1954, the number of heat wave days increased by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016. More importantly, with the increase of heat wave, seaweed forests, seagrass beds and coral reefs are gradually disappearing.

Source: Science and Technology Daily