According to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global carbon dioxide emissions will stop growing in 2019, and the total emissions will be the same as that in 2018. According to the carbon emissions of developed economies, IEA has estimated an optimistic conclusion: the global carbon emissions in 2019 may have peaked, and it is expected to start to decline in 2020. "It's a signal that we have the opportunity to push for bigger emissions reduction through more ambitious policies and investment," said Fatih Birol, IEA director

Zero growth for the first time in the decade of the 21st century

The IEA points out that global carbon emissions in 2019 have "stagnated" for the first time in a decade. The global economy grew nearly 3% last year, but energy related carbon dioxide emissions were almost the same as in 2018, at about 33 billion tons. Up to now, the energy industry is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

The financial times pointed out that in 2017 and 2018, energy related carbon dioxide emissions continued to grow. Before that, many research institutions believed that this trend would continue, and they were skeptical of current emission reduction measures and efforts. However, IEA has made the "most surprising and optimistic prediction" so far, which to some extent encouraged the morale of the global response to the climate crisis.

However, for IEA's "peak forecast", the industry generally holds a conservative attitude, and believes that 2019 is only a "pause" rather than a "peak", which should be treated with caution. In response, Birol acknowledged that in order to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goal of controlling the global average temperature rise in this century within 2 degrees Celsius, the world still needs to further significantly reduce emissions.

"While coal continues to be used in Asia's developing economies, strong growth in wind and solar power and the result of a large-scale shift from coal to natural gas and nuclear power have contributed to a decline in global carbon dioxide emissions." "The rapid spread of renewable energy and the accelerated transformation of clean energy are full of hope, but coal dependent areas are still the biggest concern," Birol said. The first step we need to do is to stop the emissions from rising further. In fact, the technologies we already have can do that, so we have to make the most of them. The performance in 2019 gives us hope and we look forward to a complete liberation in 2020. "

Emission increment "offset" by decrease

Reuters pointed out that the significant decline in emissions from developed economies in 2019 offset the growth of other countries and regions.

IEA data shows that the emission levels of all economies and regions except developed economies are still rising rapidly last year, with an increase of about 400 million tons, of which nearly 80% are from developing countries in Asia, especially Southeast Asian countries, due to the large proportion of coal power generation.

The carbon emissions of energy industry in developed economies such as the United States and the European Union have declined, among which the emissions of coal, which is the most polluted, have dropped by 15% - 25%. Japan's resumption of nuclear power has reduced emissions by 45 million tons, or about 4%, last year compared with 2018. In addition, total electricity sector emissions in developed economies fell to levels in the late 1980s, when electricity demand was one-third lower than current levels.

IEA data shows that the emissions of the United States in 2019 reached 4.8 billion tons, a decrease of 140 million tons compared with 2018, a decrease of nearly 3%, and a decrease of nearly 100 million tons compared with the peak in 2000. IEA points out that led by the cheap natural gas brought by shale wave, the U.S. emissions will decrease significantly in 2019. However, some analysts believe that the decline reflects to some extent that the U.S. power sector "has a large base" in coal use.

In 2019, the EU's total emissions decreased by 5% year-on-year, equivalent to a decrease of 160 million tons, mainly due to the increased use of natural gas and wind power in the region. The IEA points out that coal-fired power generation in the EU fell by more than 25% last year, while gas-fired power generation grew by nearly 15% and surpassed coal power for the first time, and wind power generation was close to coal power generation for the first time. It is understood that Germany's carbon emissions fell to the level of the 1950s last year.

Bloomberg pointed out that under the EU's carbon trading system, falling natural gas prices and rising carbon costs have contributed to a quarter decline in coal power generation in Europe.

Ensure to reach the "peak" emissions in 2019

"We must now work hard to ensure that 2019 is the peak year of global carbon emissions, not a flash in the pan." Birol stressed that "the results of emission reduction in 2019 prove that governments around the world have the ability to do more, we should work harder to promote the decarbonization of the power industry, and pay more attention to the decarbonization of transport and industry."

CNBC news pointed out that the role of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy continues to expand, which will help to maintain a stable level of emissions. Simon, director of Carbon Trust, UK low carbon economic consulting service "IEA data shows that we have made substantial progress in the fight against climate change, but this is only temporary. To ensure that global emissions have peaked, all countries in the world need to transform to clean power generation at a faster speed, while ensuring the emission reduction targets of transport, industry, agriculture and other sectors," Retallack said

According to IEA's report released at this year's Davos forum, about 15% of global energy related emissions come from the whole process of transporting oil and gas from underground to consumers. IEA calls on oil and gas companies to increase their investment in low-carbon energy, or they will face increasing resistance, which may threaten their long-term profits and social recognition. Data shows that up to now, the average investment of oil and gas companies in non core areas such as renewable energy is still limited to about 1% of total capital expenditure.

"The stagnation in 2019 gives us reason to believe that human beings can cope with the climate challenges of this century, every link of the industry must be taken into account, and inaction is definitely not an option," Birol said

Source: China Energy News